The CONMEBOL (South America) region still has the last automatic qualification spot up for grabs as well as the play-off spot. Argentina got a much needed win on Saturday and are currently in 4th place but need another win to guarantee a spot. Brazil, Paraguay, and Chile are all qualified by finishing in the top 3 while Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela have a chance to qualify.
Here are the latest standings for the CONMEBOL (South America) region for 2010 World Cup Qualifying through Monday, October 12, 2009.
Team v • d • e | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brazil | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 33 |
 Paraguay | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 33 |
 Chile | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 30 |
 Argentina | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 25 |
 Uruguay | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 24 |
 Ecuador | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 25 | −3 | 23 |
 Venezuela | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 29 | −6 | 21 |
 Colombia | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 18 | −6 | 20 |
 Bolivia | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 35 | −13 | 15 |
 Peru | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 34 | −24 | 10 |
Qualification:
- Brazil, Paraguay, and Chile have qualified for the 2010 FIFA World Cup.
- Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia are eliminated.
- Venezuela can qualify only via the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL play-off.
On the final matchday (October 14):
- Argentina will qualify for the World Cup if:
- they defeat Uruguay, OR
- they draw with Uruguay AND:
- Ecuador do not defeat Chile by more than four goals, OR
- Ecuador defeat Chile by exactly five goals AND Argentina score more goals than Ecuador.
- Argentina will qualify for the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL play-off if:
- they draw with Uruguay AND:
- Ecuador defeat Chile by six or more goals, OR
- Ecuador defeat Chile by exactly five goals AND score at least as many goals as Argentina; OR
- they lose to Uruguay AND Ecuador do not defeat Chile.
- they draw with Uruguay AND:
- Uruguay will qualify for the World Cup if:
- they defeat Argentina.
- Uruguay will qualify for the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL play-off if:
- they draw with Argentina AND Ecuador do not defeat Chile, OR
- they lose to Argentina AND:
- either:
- Venezuela do not defeat Brazil, OR
- the combined margin of Venezuela’s victory and Uruguay’s loss is 14 or fewer goals, OR
- the combined margin is exactly 15 goals AND Venezuela do not score five more goals than Uruguay; AND
- either:
- Ecuador lose to Chile, OR
- Ecuador draw with Chile AND Uruguay do not lose by more than 11 goals, OR
- Ecuador draw with Chile AND Uruguay lose by exactly 12 goals AND Ecuador do not score seven more goals than Uruguay.
- either:
- Ecuador will qualify for the World Cup if:
- they defeat Chile by at least five goals AND Argentina and Uruguay draw AND if they win by exactly five goals, they score at least as many goals as Argentina.
- Ecuador will qualify for the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL play-off if:
- they defeat Chile by fewer than five goals, OR
- they defeat Chile AND Argentina and Uruguay do not draw, OR
- they draw with Chile AND:
- either:
- Uruguay lose to Argentina by at least 13 goals, OR
- Uruguay lose to Argentina by exactly 12 goals AND Ecuador score seven more goals than Uruguay; AND
- either:
- Venezuela do not defeat Brazil by more than two goals, OR
- Venezuela defeat Brazil by exactly three goals AND Ecuador score two more goals than Venezuela.
- either:
- Venezuela will qualify for the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL play-off if:
- they defeat Brazil AND Uruguay lose to Argentina AND:
- either:
- the combined margin of Venezuela’s victory and Uruguay’s loss is 16 or more goals, OR
- the combined margin is exactly 15 goals AND Venezuela score six more goals than Uruguay; AND
- either:
- Ecuador lose to Chile, OR
- Ecuador draw with Chile AND Venezuela defeat Brazil by at least four goals, OR
- Ecuador draw with Chile AND Venezuela defeat Brazil by exactly three goals AND Ecuador score at most one more goal than Venezuela.
- either:
- they defeat Brazil AND Uruguay lose to Argentina AND:
Good work on breaking down all the scenarios!
The most likely in my opinion is:
1) Uruguay beats Argentina.
2) Chile beats Ecuador.
Argentina is a complete and total mess under Maradona.
Chile is a machine on the field. I think Bielsa is one of the best in the business. Also, he already declared before the game on Sunday that just because they would be qualified doesn’t mean they would not step on the field to beat Ecuador.
What’s your prediction?
Cheers,
Gary
I think Argentina gets the 5th place and plays Costa Rica/Honduras from CONCACAF for the play-off spot.
this thing won’t happen to argentina if they call higuain earlier